A common question asked during a publishers’ panel at a writer’s conference will be something like, "What do you think the next trend in publishing will be?"
Maybe the answer is plumber suspense novels, then the writers could feverishly work on plumber suspense novels and watch the money fly into their bank accounts. But is the answer truly helpful?
Knowing what sells isn’t the same thing as knowing the next big trend.
Traditional publishing moves at a slow pace. By the time the book is launched, up to two years after acceptance, the trend may be over.
Self-publishing is a faster process, but trends change swiftly and can still beat an Indie author to the punch.
Keep in mind that publishing is a long-distance run, not a sprint. Success in publishing takes years of consistent work.
Pursue Your Interests
If you love writing mysteries, but killer robot thrillers are flying off the shelves, write your mysteries. Eventually the killer robot thrillers will no longer be in vogue, and your mysteries may the next big thing.
It’s hard to go wrong with writing what you love even if it isn’t the next big thing. Readers are savvy, will see your authenticity, and know that you care about your work.
Genres Often Run in Cycles and Trends
What’s popular this week may not be a few months from now. Is it worthwhile chasing trends?
Social media often affects the larger conversation. If your book is ready for the market when the topic of your book is in the news, you may have an easier time finding an interested editor or agent.
If the timing for your topic is not right, the topic is overdone, or on a downward trend then you may need to wait, set the manuscript aside, and work on another project for a while. Never trash your work. You can always wait for the trend to change.
Keep in mind that while your manuscript awaits a time when the trend cycles back, your writing will have changed. You won’t be the same writer as your skills will have changed. So, consider revising your manuscript, or ponder a new project.
Rushing Your Work
Should you write as fast as you can to get in on the next big thing? Probably not, unless you can write like the wind or tweak what you’ve already written to fit the newly trending.
It can’t hurt to try the trend, especially if you are passionate about that topic. If you miss the wave, hold on to the manuscript for a time when the topic comes up in the cycle. But if you are trying to catch the trend just for the big bucks, chances are the work will be without depth or emotion. Readers will feel cheated if they don’t feel the emotion in your work.
Experimenting With Trends
If you feel like trying a trend, consider brief forms in that topic:
An essay
Poem
Short story
Beginning with a short form allows you to see how that topic will work for you without a huge investment in time.
Problems With Chasing Trends
Trends are fleeting.
They may last for a few months or several years. Genre matters though, as some endure for many years.
Long trending:
Fantasy
Science Fiction
Romance
Mystery
Literary Fiction
Declining trends:
Foreign Invasion Fiction
War Stories
Chivalry Novels
Traditional Westerns
Chasing trends can stifle creativity.
There’s always the risk that one’s ideas may be influenced by what appears to be popular. Whereas in creative writing we are free to make any world, rules, and society we want.
Write what you love or what the muse sends you instead of writing just for the sake of being published. Write the story you’re passionate about, not the tale that might give you the best shot with publishers. The best story to write is the one you feel compelled to write.
Markets become saturated.
Certain genres experience surges in popularity now and then—consider dystopian fiction post-Hunger Games.
Those spikes can bring mainstream success, but often lead to saturated markets. For example, romance and erotica are billion-dollar industries but are increasingly packed with formulaic books.
Chasing trends can lead to stories that don’t resonate with the readers who want authentic voices that they can relate to on an emotional level.
Trends may appear to be shortcuts to marketability. But by the time a trend hits the mainstream the market has likely begun to move on to the next big thing.
When to Ignore Trends
Sometimes it’s better to ignore trends completely. If you feel in your gut that your story demands that it must be told, trust yourself.
Groundbreaking books can defy market expectations. Anne Rice’s Interview with the Vampire created a trend. She made vampires complicated, tortured beings instead of merely monsters.
Positioning Your Manuscript
Study the basic trend.
Instead of trying to replicate a trend, do a deep dive. What need is the trend fulfilling? How can your story approach that need in a fresh and personal way?
Use your intuition.
Write the story you feel compelled to tell using a trend as inspiration, not a master plan. Decide how it harmonizes with the trend after it’s written. Don’t force your story into a mold.
Think long-term.
Cultivating a connection with readers will help you regardless of changes in trends or market shifts.
Final Thoughts
There will always be trends. Know that they come and go, and don’t lose sight of your creativity.
Do you want to be a trend-chaser? A trend-setter? Consider this course of action:
Create the story that insists upon being written.
Use your distinctive voice.
Be true to yourself, because the most authentic stories have staying power.
Do what feels right. Your gut will never steer you wrong. Who knows? Your story might be the next big thing.
Have you written to a trend? What was your experience?
* * * * * *
About Ellen
Author, speaker, and former teacher, Ellen L. Buikema has written non-fiction for parents, and The Adventures of Charlie Chameleon chapter book series with stories encouraging the development of empathy—sprinkling humor wherever possible. Her Works in Progress are The Hobo Code, YA historical fiction and The Crystal Key, MG Magical Realism/ Sci-Fi, a glaze of time travel.
17 comments on “Chasing Trends, A Writer’s Dilemma”
"Never trash your work." Never! Neither denigrate it nor destroy it!
This post reminds me of the young woman at the self-publishing firm that published my second novel. I had a budget saved to buy 100 copies, to have print copies for family and for beta readers and my critique group who had been inspirational during the book's journey to completion, to have on hand at book fairs, and to sign for direct sales (out of my basement). This young woman wanted me to spend my budget on her marketing plan. She was pretty insistent. But she had never run up against an author like me who knew exactly what I wanted to do with my money.
After calling me several times over two weeks or so, she had pestered me beyond my patience limit. Finally I said, "Your plan may do great things for my book. But it can't guarantee me anything, can it?" She reluctantly admitted that was true. When she reiterated that the best time to push the book was upon publication, which is also true, I replied, "If my book doesn't become a bestseller next week, it will not evaporate." Stunned by this (bizarre but obvious) concept, she was speechless. (At last, she stopped calling me!)
No, I haven't been an aggressive marketer of either of my books. No one else is responsible for that. But I'm OK with that. For me, getting the books written and published is the cake. Anything after that is the frosting. I've always preferred the cake over the frosting - just ask my mother!
It's really easy to get pushed into doing what others want. Good on you for knowing what you want and sticking to it. And absolutely, never toss your work.
I am ever the lover of frosting, but tend to eat it last. Messy, but me.
We never know where the next trend is coming from, and neither do the editors and agents. Sometimes a book they loved doesn't sell and sometimes a sleeper comes along. Remember that Harry Potter was rejected by 12 publishers and then set a trend for longer middle grade fantasy and fantasy in general.
I'd rather gamble on the book I need to write than on the one that I think might fit what someone is looking for to fill a list that won't publish for at least two years.
Following trends isn't something I do, but it's a temptation every time I start a new project. I think you hit the nail on the head with this: "Instead of trying to replicate a trend, do a deep dive. What need is the trend fulfilling?" And if you aren't "following a trend" ask yourself "what reader need will my book fulfill? Thanks for a thoughtful post, Ellen.
Thanks, Ellen for this reminder. It's important to write what you feel compelled to create.
The markets are fickle and they do swing back and forth through what is the hot-new-trend on a regular basis. It seems like a good idea to just write a dang, good book and find a home for it when its ready.
My first ever novel was a trend at the time, epic fantasy, but I never intended to publish it, or those that immediately followed.
Over time, trends changed and I changed, my interest in epic fantasy waning. These days, I write and publish fantasy for the World of Ontyre, but it’s closer to a mix of women’s fiction and romantic suspense, depending on the story. I could care less about trends. I’d rather have a tiny audience discover me over time.
I think that 'writing to market' is always a mistake, at least in the longer term, especially now that AI can create in moments what would still take the fastest Indie writer weeks? to produce. And that's without even mentioning the 'Q' word. Sadly all the snakeoil salesmen will be pumping AI for all its worth, putting committed writers at even more of a disadvantage. Perhaps the best thing is for us not to publish anything at all for a while until the digital dust settles. 🙁
Hi Andrea,
I think using AI as a tool in our tool box is a good idea, but there is definitely a concern with overuse. As you say, pumping for all its worth.
For now, my plan is to continue writing what feels best to me and won't worry about what is trending. Trends cycle.
Experimenting with short forms to gauge interest in a trend is a smart approach, allowing for creativity without a huge commitment. Overall, this is a powerful reminder that cultivating a unique voice and focusing on long-term connections with readers will always yield more fulfilling results than simply chasing the latest trend. Thank you for sharing these thoughtful reflections.
Chasing trends can be both an enticing and challenging endeavor for writers. While it offers opportunities for growth and visibility, it’s essential to maintain authenticity, <a href="[Link deleted]dash scratch, and creativity.
"Never trash your work." Never! Neither denigrate it nor destroy it!
This post reminds me of the young woman at the self-publishing firm that published my second novel. I had a budget saved to buy 100 copies, to have print copies for family and for beta readers and my critique group who had been inspirational during the book's journey to completion, to have on hand at book fairs, and to sign for direct sales (out of my basement). This young woman wanted me to spend my budget on her marketing plan. She was pretty insistent. But she had never run up against an author like me who knew exactly what I wanted to do with my money.
After calling me several times over two weeks or so, she had pestered me beyond my patience limit. Finally I said, "Your plan may do great things for my book. But it can't guarantee me anything, can it?" She reluctantly admitted that was true. When she reiterated that the best time to push the book was upon publication, which is also true, I replied, "If my book doesn't become a bestseller next week, it will not evaporate." Stunned by this (bizarre but obvious) concept, she was speechless. (At last, she stopped calling me!)
No, I haven't been an aggressive marketer of either of my books. No one else is responsible for that. But I'm OK with that. For me, getting the books written and published is the cake. Anything after that is the frosting. I've always preferred the cake over the frosting - just ask my mother!
Hi Sally.
It's really easy to get pushed into doing what others want. Good on you for knowing what you want and sticking to it. And absolutely, never toss your work.
I am ever the lover of frosting, but tend to eat it last. Messy, but me.
Thank you for sharing your story!
We never know where the next trend is coming from, and neither do the editors and agents. Sometimes a book they loved doesn't sell and sometimes a sleeper comes along. Remember that Harry Potter was rejected by 12 publishers and then set a trend for longer middle grade fantasy and fantasy in general.
I'd rather gamble on the book I need to write than on the one that I think might fit what someone is looking for to fill a list that won't publish for at least two years.
Hi Debbie.
I'm right there with you. Better to gamble on the book you need to write. A lot can change in much less than two years.
Thank you for the Harry Potter reminder!
Following trends isn't something I do, but it's a temptation every time I start a new project. I think you hit the nail on the head with this: "Instead of trying to replicate a trend, do a deep dive. What need is the trend fulfilling?" And if you aren't "following a trend" ask yourself "what reader need will my book fulfill? Thanks for a thoughtful post, Ellen.
Thank you, Lynette!
I ponder a potential book's fulfillment of needs each time ideas pop in.
I'm glad that you enjoyed the post!
Thanks, Ellen for this reminder. It's important to write what you feel compelled to create.
The markets are fickle and they do swing back and forth through what is the hot-new-trend on a regular basis. It seems like a good idea to just write a dang, good book and find a home for it when its ready.
Happy writing!
Kris
Absolutely, Kris!
It can't hurt to play around with a hot topic and set it aside for later. Catching a trend is stressful and hurried--neither of those being helpful.
My first ever novel was a trend at the time, epic fantasy, but I never intended to publish it, or those that immediately followed.
Over time, trends changed and I changed, my interest in epic fantasy waning. These days, I write and publish fantasy for the World of Ontyre, but it’s closer to a mix of women’s fiction and romantic suspense, depending on the story. I could care less about trends. I’d rather have a tiny audience discover me over time.
Hi Christina.
It's great that you have such a good handle on what you want to write and are not concerned with what's in fashion, writing-wise.
Be true to yourself is key.
Bravo, Denise!
I think that 'writing to market' is always a mistake, at least in the longer term, especially now that AI can create in moments what would still take the fastest Indie writer weeks? to produce. And that's without even mentioning the 'Q' word. Sadly all the snakeoil salesmen will be pumping AI for all its worth, putting committed writers at even more of a disadvantage. Perhaps the best thing is for us not to publish anything at all for a while until the digital dust settles. 🙁
Hi Andrea,
I think using AI as a tool in our tool box is a good idea, but there is definitely a concern with overuse. As you say, pumping for all its worth.
For now, my plan is to continue writing what feels best to me and won't worry about what is trending. Trends cycle.
Experimenting with short forms to gauge interest in a trend is a smart approach, allowing for creativity without a huge commitment. Overall, this is a powerful reminder that cultivating a unique voice and focusing on long-term connections with readers will always yield more fulfilling results than simply chasing the latest trend. Thank you for sharing these thoughtful reflections.
Hi Kathryn,
I'm pleased that you've found the suggestions useful. Thank you for reminding me that I need to finish that short story.
Cheers!
Chasing trends can be both an enticing and challenging endeavor for writers. While it offers opportunities for growth and visibility, it’s essential to maintain authenticity, <a href="[Link deleted]dash scratch, and creativity.